The foreign policy of the second Trump ad­ ministration: intentions and capabilities

Abstract

This article challenges the prevailing view that the second Trump administration’s foreign policies are merely provocative and unpredictable. Several key characteristics of its international approach were already evident during D. Trump’s first term, others were shaped by enduring US interests, available resources, and the new geopolitical context after 2022. Under­ standing the shifts in Washington’s international approach requires examining D. Trump’s stated intentions and capabilities. By early 2025, at least four intentions had become apparent: expanding US-controlled territories, containing the influence of China, brokering a ceasefire in the Russia – Ukraine special military operation, and compelling allies to increase their financial and strategic contributions to Western defence. The administration deploys four primary capabilities to advance these goals: America’s substantial technological advantages, extensive financial and economic resources, soft power through free-market ideology, and military strength encompassing conventional forces and nuclear deterrence. When viewed through this fra mework of intentions and capabilities, D. Trump’s foreign policy appears considerably more coherent.