Forecasting cases of children disease by non-invasive forms of pneumococcal infection

Abstract

The forecasting of children cases (under 7 years of age) by non-invasive forms of pneumococcal infection was carried out using a mathematical model of time series. A database was used with clinical and epidemiological information about 435 patients hospitalized for 3 years. It is found out that the average number of cases is 12 children per month. The obtained results can be used for medium-term and long-term forecasting of the patient number needing medical care during a calendar year, and also for the organization and planning of a corresponding complex of preventive and therapeutic measures