Метод альтернатив как эффективный механизм повышения достоверности экспертных оценок

Abstract

In order to minimize the sources of accuracy and reliability losses in expert estimates (as exemplified by risk in standardization) the concept of the effective expert system is developed. The methodological basis of this system is the application of the utility theory approach as a tool for studying of expert preferences and the axiomatic approach used for system’s elaboration. The key elements of the expert system are the method of alternative comparisons as an effective way to collect and quantify expert data using interval scale and special technique for carrying out the expert interviewing.