Генезис теорий валютного курса

Abstract

"Genesis of the Theories of Currency Exchange Rates" The article explores the genesis of exchange rates. It points out the reasons for the increased interest in the given problems in the 70-s of the XX century and also seeks to provide deep theoretical pre-requisites for modern uncoordinated theories. The object of the theories of currency exchange rates is the flexible equilibrium rate as an economic category. The initial point for the genesis is regarded to be its Keynesian theory interpretation in the original model of Mandell-Fleming (M-F). It deduces an equation of equilibrium flexible currency rate where it is a positive function from the national income and a negative function from the interest rate. The conclusion is made that the increase of national output will lead to the depreciation of national currency and the growth of national interest rates will lead to the currency price rise. The further theory development goes on as its drawbacks are revealed, i. e. the inadequate behaviour of the exchange rate due to the change in these or those variables showing the balance of payment. One of the limitations of the Keynesian theory is the simplification of the function of capital flows. In its new variant capital inflow is increasing not only after the growth of the national interest rate but also due to the growth of national income. If the effect of the income influence on the capital flows is supposed to predominate, then its growth will cause not the depreciation of the currency as in the M-F model, but the rise of the money price level. Extension of the model in this direction was made by Helliwell in 1969. The next drawback is a presupposition of fixed salary and prices in the short-time period. It means that it is necessary to introduce a pre-requisite of the equilibrium of prices and salaries to carry out the middle-term analysis. Thus, are can deduce an equation of the real currency exchange rate provided the existing balance of payment. This fact provides the grounds for the conclusion that the change of real exchange rate during the change of the nominal rate depends on the level of reaction of national prices, i. e. nominal depreciation will not always lead to real depreciation. The introduction of the equilibrium of prices and salaries into the theory of the exchange rate can be found in the works of Argy and Salope (1979) and also in the work of Dornbush (1983).