Объективные экономические причины появления евро

Abstract

The international role of any currency is determined by six basic parameters: 1. The share in the currency conversion; 2. The share in private investment portfolios; 3. The share in national bond debts; 4. The share in external payments; 5. The share in official reserves; 6. Volume of foreign currencies pegged to the given currency As seen from Table 1, the share of the US dollar has fallen during the last twenty years. The share of the yen has also decreased. At the same time, the role of the DM and other western European currencies of the EMU has significantly increased. However, as seen from Tables 1 and 2, this process was greatly irregular. According to the analysts from the Bank of External Payments in Basel, after the euro introduction the currency conversion market was reduced by minimum 10 % and dealers will aim to increase trade volume in the developing countries' markets. The smallest reduction was observed in external payments. The fall of the dollar share can be explained by a series of its devaluation during the considered period as well as by structural changes in the world trade, first of all by the reduction of the share of the OPEC member-states in international export — from 16 % in 1980 to 5 % in 1992. In the last decades rapid reduction of the dollar share took place in the sphere of investment portfolios leading to the growth of the appropriate volume of western European currencies and the yen. (See Table 3) The dynamics of the currency filling of the national bond debts (as seen from Table 4) is almost similar to the dynamics of private investment portfolios. The euro has good positions in this segment of world financial markets, though it may face the negative influence of the transition period. As seen from Table 5, from 1973 gradual slide of the US dollar in official reserves of other states took place. Simultaneously, the volume of western European currencies and the yen has risen significantly. In future, the international role of the euro, the US dollar and the yen will be determined on the whole by the level of pegging of currencies from developing countries. As for Russia and other European CIS member-states, the experts are definite in their opinion that the euro will play a more important role in their currency markets than the dollar or the yen. However, leading international experts from the IMF and other instituitions believe that the EMU future is not absolutely bright. The point is that establishment of economic and currency unions does not envisage similar unification of the fiscal policy of the member-states. Meanwhile, its role can be especially high within fiscal federalism like the one existing already in the USA. According to some experts, the USA federal fiscal system absorbs up to 40 % of shocks that separate states of the country face. No such measures are provided within economic and currency unions. The fiscal factor against external shocks will be limited by national budgets. The IMF experts considered the trends of the 1990s and calculated the hypothetical base level of macroeconomic indices that could have been reached by the EMU member-states in the beginning of the next millenium in case there had been no economic and currency unions. Two scenarios of the development of these countries within the EMU during 2000—2010 have been presented. The first scenario: the EMU member-states undertake further fiscal consolidation and achieve the reduction of national expenses for medium term by the sum equal to 2 % of the GDP. Simultaneously, they will obviously increase efficiency of production factors by 0,5 % due to liberalization of the commodity markets and the introduction of a single currency. It will also lead to unemployment reduction by 2 % (to the 7 %) due to radical reforms in the labour markets. The second scenario: the EMU member-states limit themselves to strict fulfillment of the requirements of the Pact of stability and growth but do not implement further structural reforms. Table 7 systematizes the results. Certainly, the calculations of the experts are conditional to some extent. However, they create sufficient basis for the important conclusion: in case the economic and currency is not followed by significant reforms of the financial system and labour relations, the EMU will not only fail to be profitable for its member-states, but will also lead to the reduction of the macroeconomic indices that could emerge without the EMU.