Региональная безопасность Персидского залива

Abstract

A region is a subsystem of the international system. So, the analysis of the problems of regional security, requires choosing some criteria that might be applied. But one of the most important criteria is an assumption that the Gulf region is unstable. There are two major problems with arms race. They divert resources needed elsewhere, and they tend to jeopardize stability. So, if the present build-up continues, the region may end up in a situation of fragile balance, i.e. a situation where everybody is in a position to hurt others, but where no one side is capable of defending itself against a determined surprise attack, i. e. what one might call a mutual offensive superiority stance. All states may thus be able to retaliate after any attack. But such a stalemate situation is only stable up to a point, till when one of the actors moves, in which case a small move may well trigger a chain reaction: — if one of the states lowers its guard, the temptation for the others to exploit the window of opportunity may prove irresistible; — if any one makes a step (by mobilization or just a large-scale military exercise), the others may fear an impending surprise attack, hence strike preemptively.