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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://elib.bsu.by/handle/123456789/28828
Title: Стохастическое моделирование экономики страны
Other Titles: Stochastic Modeling of the Economy of the Country (Ernest Aksen, Vladimir Rudenkov)
Authors: Аксень, Эрнест Маврициевич
Руденков, Владимир Михайлович
Keywords: ЭБ БГУ::ОБЩЕСТВЕННЫЕ НАУКИ::Экономика и экономические науки
Issue Date: 2004
Publisher: Международное общественное объединение по изучению ООН и информационно-образовательным программам
Citation: Белорусский журнал международного права и международных отношений. — 2004. — № 2
Abstract: 1. Purpose of the model The stochastic dynamic model suggested by the authors is intended to determine and explore the determinants of economic growth in Belarus, to estimate the impact of the governments' investment, tax, monetary and budget policies on the macroeconomic indicators (GDP, inflation, dollarization, domestic and foreign investments, etc.), to investigate different hypothetical scenarios of the economic policy, and to choose the optimal ones. As a rule, each of the possible scenarios of the economic policies has its advantages and disadvantages. It is important to determine which effect of one or another scenario of the economic policy — positive or negative — prevails and what the aggregate influence on the economic growth is. (For example, in Belarus the wide use of granting the government credits, of the government's investments into the firms' equity, as well as of subsidizing the enterprises, on one hand, has a positive impact on the economic growth and, on the other hand, a negative one, since the above mentioned measures are taken at the expense of the monetary emission (seigniorage). Therefore, it is interesting and significant to determine the predominating effect and to come to a conclusion concerning the correctness of this element of the economic policy.) 2. Methodology of the construction and use of the model This model has both theoretical and conometric features, i. e. on the one hand, it describes the structure of the studied economic systems (Belarus' economy), and on the other hand, it is intended for the use of empirical data. The stochastic nature of the model allows to consider financial and production risks for forecasting. The model takes into account the interests of the economic agents: households, firms and foreign investors. When constructing and exploring the model, the following mathematical tools have been (and will be) used: random processes, stochastic optimal control, Monte-Carlo simulation. 3. Exploration of the model The model will be explored by means of the functional analysis. There will be constructed normed spaces whose elements are random paths, and the utility maximization problems (for households, government and foreign investors) will be formulated in the relevant normed spaces (of random paths). Then, by means of the theory of optimal control in normed spaces (presented, for example, in the book [Alexeev V. M., Tihomirov V. M., Fomin S. V. (1979)\), the relevant first-order conditions (Kuhn-Tucker conditions) will be derived. The derived first-order conditions will be used both for theoretical (a-priori) exploration of the model and for the numerical modeling. The numerical modeling will be based on the method of Monte-Carlo simulation. 4. Estimation of the model's parameters When determining the type (specification) and estimating parameters of production and utility functions, and of other elements of the model, the main difficulty will consist in insufficient quantities of empirical data (in particular, the relevant time series are too short). These problems (with the shortage of data) will be tackled in the following way. The regression models with the use of panel data will be run (i. e. for the estimation of parameters for Belarus' economy, there will be used data not only for this country but also for other ones). Besides, the regression methods will be integrated with the methods of expert estimation. 5. Level of the model's development By the current moment, a preliminary version of the model has been constructed. The model will be further developed taking into account empirical data and experts' opinions. 6. Stages of Research 1. Construction of a structural dynamic model: description of relationship between macroeconomic indicators by means of algebraic equations. 2. Construction of a theoretical dynamic model basing on the structural model: description of interests of economic agents by means of utility maximization problems. 3. Construction of a stochastic dynamic model basing on the theoretical model. 4. Exploration of the stochastic dynamic model for its correctness: issues of the existence and uniqueness of the equilibrium. 5. Construction of systems of stochastic equations for finding optimal solutions of utility maximization problems. 6. Obtaining of theoretical results of qualitative nature. 7. Development of computing algorithms for obtaining numerical results. 8. Collection of empirical economic data. 9. Estimation of specification and parameters of the model (production function, utility functions, etc.). 10. Obtaining numerical results with the help of the developed algorithms basing on empirical data. 11. Analysis of the obtained results and development of suggestions on perfecting Belarus' economic policy. The authors will be thankful to everybody who wants to cooperate in discussing, elaboration and implementation of the model for forecasting scenarios of economic development of the country.
Description: Раздел - "Международные экономические отношения"
URI: http://elib.bsu.by/handle/123456789/28828
Appears in Collections:Белорусский журнал международного права и международных отношений. — 2004. — № 2

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