https://elib.bsu.by:443/handle/123456789/327802 Mon, 20 Apr 2026 09:19:07 GMT 2026-04-20T09:19:07Z https://elib.bsu.by:443/handle/123456789/327923 Заглавие документа: When and where will state-based conflicts occur in the remaining 21 st century? Авторы: Rostan, P.; Rostan, A. Аннотация: This study seeks to identify the timing and location of state-based conflicts in the remaining 21 st century and to estimate the probability of future state-based conflicts by world regions. The methodology employs a fourstep forecasting model utilising wavelet analysis to predict death estimates from state-based conflicts before 2100. These estimates generate forecasts of the probability of state-based conflicts in each world region over the next decades. The findings suggest that before 2100, the probability of state-based conflicts, measured by resulting fatalities as a proxy, is estimated at 54 % in Asia and Oceania (excluding the Middle East), 31 % in Africa, 8 % in Europe, 6 % in the Americas, and 0 % in the Middle East. Mon, 01 Jan 2024 00:00:00 GMT https://elib.bsu.by:443/handle/123456789/327923 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z https://elib.bsu.by:443/handle/123456789/327919 Заглавие документа: International cooperation on migration in Africa in the 1950s: an analysis of UN High Commissioner for Refugees reports Авторы: Selivanov, A. V. Аннотация: This article analyses United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees reports to the United Nations General Assembly (sessions 6–16), examining international cooperation on forced migration in Africa through UN High Commissioner for Refugees activities. The study concludes that the 1950s marked the beginning of dynamic international cooperation in migration. As deco lonisation began, migration patterns shifted towards forced displacement. UN High Commissioner for Refugees, initially responsible for a small number of persons of concern, gradually expanded its programmes across regions. States and international organisations supported these efforts through resettlement and local assistance programmes. The Algerian crisis highlighted the need to broaden the scope of the 1951 Convention relating to the status of refugees. The 1950s can be divided into two distinct phases: 1951–1956, when international bodies first engaged with African migration issues, and 1957–1960, marked by an active emergency response to forced migration. Mon, 01 Jan 2024 00:00:00 GMT https://elib.bsu.by:443/handle/123456789/327919 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z https://elib.bsu.by:443/handle/123456789/327911 Заглавие документа: Features and trends in the development of Sino-Russian cooperation in the field of non-traditional security Авторы: Sun Jian Аннотация: The concept of non-traditional security has gained widespread recognition among states in recent decades. For regional and international powers like China and Russia, the non-traditional security domain assumes even greater significance than traditional security during peacetime. These two countries have a longstanding history of cooperation in non-traditional security areas. Amidst the significant geopolitical shifts characterising the contemporary world, both China and Russia have intensified their collaborative efforts in this domain, focusing primarily on scientific and technological, financial, energy, and agricultural sectors. This article analyses the recent developments in Sino-Russian cooperation across these sectors, highlighting notable achievements and persistent challenges. An examination of the tangible outcomes reveals substantial financial investments, close and complementary bilateral partnerships driven by pragmatism, and a positive overall trajectory of development. While certain challenges remain, these are unlikely to impede the accelerating pace of cooperation. It is anticipated that Sino-Russian collaboration in non-traditional security will continue to deepen and broaden in the future. Mon, 01 Jan 2024 00:00:00 GMT https://elib.bsu.by:443/handle/123456789/327911 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z https://elib.bsu.by:443/handle/123456789/327903 Заглавие документа: Regional аviation diplomacy of the Republic of Belarus and its strategic partners Авторы: Yu Yang Аннотация: A robust aviation sector is a source of pride for many nations. The possession of national air carriers (both pas- senger and cargo), maintenance facilities, advanced air navigation systems, and airports capable of ccommodating diverse aircraft is a significant symbol of modernity and international engagement for many states. As societies evolve and international engagements expand, aviation diplomacy is becoming a crucial instrument in the foreign policy strategies of numerous states, including Belarus. The author of this article examines the regional aspects of aviation diplomacy between Belarus and its strategic partners, China and Russia, analyses government documents and cooperative outcomes within the Belarus – China aviation relationship and explores the potential for expanding air routes linking Belarus, China, and Russia. Mon, 01 Jan 2024 00:00:00 GMT https://elib.bsu.by:443/handle/123456789/327903 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z