Палітыка Расіі адносна краін Цэнтральнай і Усходняй Еўропы: погляд з Варшавы

Abstract

The article follows in detail both Moscow's attempts repulsed by Warsaw to reestablish its influence on the most significant European decisions through the Central European capitals, and the immediate reaction of the Polish politicians (which is mainly negative and defensive) to the Kremlin's reintegration-aimed actions. As the background the problems of interdependence of European security and the national development of Russia are discussed. All that regularly stimulates Polish elite's constant readiness for action against possible moves of Russian policy-makers. In the Western direction Russia faces not only global, but regional international problems as well. They are: the shift of the geopolitical preferences from East to West in this strategically crucial region of Central and Eastern Europe, and weakening of the economic cooperation with the former partners in Warsaw Treaty Organization. Russia has concurred with the Soviet Empire breakdown. However, this does not mean the consent to incorporation of the former allies into the structures, which are still alien to Russia. In Warsaw's opinion, the reintegration of the former Soviet sphere of influence is thought by Moscow to be the principal condition of the success of its regional policy. The second condition is the renewal of the structures, that would at least resemble the ones dismissed in the beginning of the 90's (Warsaw Treaty and Council for Economic Assistance). Due to its own difficulties Moscow is reluctant to declare whole Central and Eastern Europe the sphere of its national interests. Some inconsistent moves in that direction just brought some uneasiness to the region's capitals and a bit disquieted the West about the situation in this part of Europe. That is why at the moment Russia is content with the minimum. Outside the CIS borders she is trying to create a belt of friendly states, linked to her economically and ready to take into account her interests regarding the main European issues. Therefore the incorporation of the Central-European countries into NATO and/or EU will, no doubt, find no support from the Kremlin. The nuclear geopolitical role of Poland among the post-socialist European countries grants this former USSR's ally Moscow's special attention. In their turn, after the sharp turn to the West, the Polish foreign policy-makers constantly follow the reaction of the great Eastern neighbor, producing numerous scenarios of the anticipated Russian expansion into Central Europe. Polish foreign policis doctrine states that in any case there is a threat from Russia. In Warsaw's perception the main goal of the Russian foreign policy is blocking any positive shifts in this region's relations with the Western structures, that would supposedly be permanent and would bypass Russia.